What happens on October 14, 2026
SSA publishes the 2027 COLA at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on October 14, 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI-W that morning, and September is the third and last month SSA needs. The agency averages CPI-W across July, August and September, compares that average with the same three months of 2025, and rounds the rise to one decimal place. Forecasters currently land between 3.2% and 3.6%, against the 2.8% paid for 2026.
Come back on October 14 and pick "Enter the official figure myself" to run your own benefit against the real number.
Why your raise shrinks twice
Two rules cut the headline percentage down before you see it.
SSA rounds your new monthly benefit down to the next lower whole dollar. A $2,071 benefit at 3.6% works out to $2,145.56, and you receive $2,145. The 56 cents disappear every month.
Medicare then deducts the Part B premium straight from your payment. Part B costs $202.90 a month in 2026. The Medicare Trustees project $209.50 for 2027, while private forecasters expect $216 to $219 and point out that the Trustees have underestimated the premium for several years running. CMS publishes the official figure in November 2026. On the Trustees number, $6.60 of your monthly raise goes to Medicare. On the forecasters' number, $14.10 does.
The raise looks very different at the bottom and the top
A percentage raise pays out in proportion to your benefit, while the Part B premium costs every beneficiary the same dollars. Small benefits lose a much larger share of the increase.
| Current benefit | Gross raise at 3.6% | Part B rise | You keep | Medicare's share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $900 | $32 | $14.10 | $17.90 | 44% |
| $1,400 | $50 | $14.10 | $35.90 | 28% |
| $2,071 (average) | $74 | $14.10 | $59.90 | 19% |
| $3,000 | $108 | $14.10 | $93.90 | 13% |
| $4,207 (max at full retirement age) | $151 | $14.10 | $136.90 | 9% |
Figures use the $217 Part B forecast and SSA's round-down rule.
Hold harmless, and when it fails you
The hold harmless provision caps the Part B premium increase at your dollar COLA, so your net check cannot fall from one year to the next. It protects the beneficiary whose $14 premium rise would otherwise swallow a $12 raise.
Three groups fall outside it. You lose the protection if you pay an IRMAA surcharge because your 2025 income was above $109,000 filing single or $218,000 filing jointly. You lose it if you enroll in Medicare during 2027. You also lose it if you pay your premium by direct bill rather than through a benefit deduction. Check the 2027 Part B and IRMAA calculator if your income puts you near a surcharge bracket.
What a COLA does not fix
The COLA tracks CPI-W, an index built from the spending of urban wage earners and clerical workers. Retirees spend a larger share of their money on medical care and housing, and both have outrun CPI-W for most of the past decade. A 3.6% raise against 3.6% measured inflation still leaves you behind if your own costs rose 5%. Run your own numbers through the CPI inflation calculator to see how far a dollar has moved since you claimed.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly does SSA announce the 2027 COLA?
October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, alongside the September CPI-W release.
When does the increase reach my payment?
January 2027. SSA posts your notice in your my Social Security account in early December 2026.
Does the COLA apply to SSI and disability benefits?
Yes. The same percentage applies to retirement, survivors, disability and SSI payments. SSI recipients receive the increase from December 31, 2026.
Can the COLA be zero?
Yes. A flat or falling CPI-W produces no COLA, which happened in 2010, 2011 and 2016. Benefits never fall as a result.
Will the taxable earnings cap rise too?
Yes, and it moves with average wages rather than with prices. The cap sits at $184,500 for 2026. SSA publishes the 2027 figure in the same October announcement.
Is my Social Security income taxable?
Up to 85% of it can be, depending on your combined income. The new 65+ deduction under OBBBA cuts the bill for many retirees, which the Schedule 1-A calculator estimates.